Kyle: Analyst of the Month

Welcome to the 19th edition of the Analyst of the Month

Our mission at Artemis is to help shape crypto into a more fundamentals-driven asset class by building THE on-chain metrics with leading analysts and protocols.

Every month, we highlight a leading analyst who takes a long-term view of crypto.

This month we highlight Kyle, Analyst at DeFiance Capital, thesis-driven digital asset investment firm.

Kyle has a unique perspective on crypto investing, shaped by his experiences at Cumberland, Artemis, Modular Capital, and now DeFiance Capital. His journey began in 2020 during his time in the Singapore army, where early success in ETH and NFTs pulled him into the space. A major financial loss led him to take crypto seriously, diving deep into DeFi, trading, and venture research.

Read on to learn more about Kyle’s structured approach to evaluating DeFi protocols, how he balances narratives with fundamentals, and why he believes market structure is evolving permanently. He also shares his contrarian takes on Layer 1 valuations, why institutions are missing the real opportunity in DeFi, and his best advice for breaking into crypto investing.

What is your story? Can you share your journey into the world of crypto and digital assets? What sparked your initial interest in crypto?

I first got into crypto while serving in the Singapore army, it was around 2020 or 2021. A few of my friends were messing around with ETH, and I ended up buying some at $1,000. Then it pumped to $4,000. That got me hooked. I made some decent money through NFTs, turned $30k of army savings into something like $400k. But I got greedy, went into all the platforms that eventually collapsed — Celsius, BlockFi, even FTX and ended up losing everything.

Oddly enough, losing it all was what pulled me deeper. I realized this space wasn’t just about quick gains, there is actually a lot of potential. I was also studying computer science at the time, but I didn’t really like coding. I didn’t want to be a software engineer. I considered becoming an entrepreneur or going into management consulting. But then I stumbled into crypto trading and DeFi, and it all just clicked.

There was this one YouTube channel, Finematics, that really helped me wrap my head around crypto concepts through animations. And once I understood decentralization, it all made sense. Especially for people our age, Gen Z grew up in a world of high inflation, insane housing prices, and governments or big tech companies constantly overreaching. Crypto felt like a rebellion against that, but with logic, not just ideology.

How did you transition to your role at DeFiance Capital? What’s been the most exciting part of your work?

I approached my crypto career like a roadmap. I wanted to try everything. I started at a protocol doing research to understand how things worked from the ground up. Then I joined a venture firm as a research assistant — writing memos, doing diligence, absorbing frameworks. I wrote a lot during this period, and one day someone from Cumberland saw my stuff and reached out for a role. That was huge. Cumberland’s one of the most professional shops in crypto trading, and it really leveled me up, especially in understanding the liquid token space.

After that, I did BD for a protocol just to see if I liked it (I didn’t like it as much, I’m more of a research/investing person). I eventually spent a year in New York with Artemis and even did a side stint at Modular Capital, a liquid-focused fund. That year was transformative. I met a ton of people in the space, built real connections, and really got a feel for how the top players think. When I came back to Singapore, I applied to DeFiance and got the offer.

The best part of my work now is how dynamic everything is. Every day feels like a puzzle, and you get to see how market narratives, fundamentals, and people all intersect.

What’s your approach to evaluating early-stage DeFi protocols? Are there specific metrics or indicators you prioritize when assessing an investment opportunity?

I think the market has changed a lot, and valuations are really just a bridge between stories and numbers—how believable you can make the story determines its impact. Crypto swings like a pendulum. In a bull market, the narrative is everything, and the story sounds amazing. But at the same time, the space is shifting toward fundamentals, and we're seeing two paradigms emerge.

One is still very narrative-driven, where hype drives prices regardless of underlying value. The other is more fundamentally grounded, where investors start asking real questions about revenue and sustainability. Right now, most valuations in crypto still rest on weak fundamentals, which is why the space remains highly volatile. But over time, I believe the market will start pricing assets more like traditional equities, where real value matters.

What do you like about Artemis and how do you utilize Artemis as part of your research?

Artemis is honestly the best tool for Excel integration and Excel is where every fund I know does their real work. At the end of the day, we just want clean, reliable data: protocol revenue, user metrics, fees, tvl etc. Artemis makes that easy to pull and model.

One underrated thing? Historical price data. It’s harder than you would think to get clean historicals in crypto. Artemis solves that.

Narratives often drive crypto market cycles, but in traditional finance, fundamentals usually dictate long-term value. How do you balance these two perspectives when investing in liquid and venture-stage crypto assets? 

That’s a tricky one, because I think narratives are just “stories people believe in” and fundamentals are how you attach numbers to those stories. In crypto, most tokens don’t have fundamentals. So you’re really just trading belief systems.

My style is to focus on tokens I believe in, which means they need to have some form of real value. But I’m also realistic. If I’m holding a position for 6 months and the market clearly disagrees, I reassess. Being “early” is often just another way of being wrong or at least, capital inefficient.

The crypto space has gone through multiple boom-and-bust cycles. What lessons have you learnt about managing risk and portfolio construction in a volatile market? 

The number one rule? Don’t blow up.

Trading is like driving a fast car, the most important thing is not to crash. For me, I don’t trade past 9PM — decision-making degrades at night. If I miss a pump, I miss it. There’s always another bus. Some of my worst trades happened at 2AM.

In terms of sizing: I follow a barbell strategy. I might put 1% of my portfolio into something super early-stage and risky if it 100x’s, that’s massive. If it goes to zero, I lose 1%. I don’t need to bet 50% of my stack on it.

And portfolio construction is dynamic. Like in the 2021 cycle, people overweighted ETH thinking it was “safe”, but it underperformed BTC massively. You have to stay flexible.

Where do you see institutional adoption of crypto heading? Are traditional finance players approaching the space differently compared to past cycles? 

Institutions love things like RWAs, stablecoins, and tokenized treasuries. What’s interesting is that most of the things they care about — Circle, Tether, etc. — are not even investable through tokens.

What I think is undervalued: crypto is like an internet financial layer on top of all existing financial institutions. Right now, TradFi players want to build their own versions and they don’t want to lose control. But I believe they’ll eventually realize DeFi protocols are distribution channels. We’re not competition; we’re collaborators. The incentives are aligned and if they want global liquidity, they’ll need DeFi.

What is a widely held belief in the crypto investing space that you strongly disagree with?

I have a few hot takes.

1. Market structure is never going back to what it was. Everyone thinks we’ll get another 2021-style bull market. But what if this bear lasts 10 years? Crypto is extremely path-dependent. The “diamond in the desert” analogy applies: if no one’s looking, even great tokens can stay cheap forever.

2. Layer 1s shouldn’t have premiums. I think the Fat Protocol Thesis is overhyped. Most of the value accrual will go to apps, not base layers. Look at WordPress (44% of internet traffic, $7.5B valuation) vs Shopify (4% of traffic, $160B valuation). Apps win.

3. The idea that undervalued means it will go up soon is flawed. A lot of good protocols are cheap now, but that doesn’t mean they’ll re-rate soon. Institutions aren’t buying alts. They’re buying BTC, ETH. So a lot of stuff may stay “cheap” for a long time.

What's one crypto sector or narrative that you think is currently undervalued or misunderstood by the broader market?

Honestly, I don’t believe in sectors anymore. Everything starts sounding the same — “web3”, “gaming”, “AI crypto” — but most of it is not investable. I evaluate protocols one by one.

If I had to name one I like right now — it’s Grass. A lot of people don’t believe in the founder or the numbers. But I’ve talked to people close to the team, and I believe. If I’m right, it’s massively asymmetric.

If you could give one piece of advice to someone looking to break into crypto investment research, what would it be?

Write. Seriously. Writing changed my life. It’s how I got noticed. It’s how people took me seriously.

Everyone talks about “building a brand”. Writing is the best way to do that — especially on Twitter. I still think crypto Twitter, even as it evolves, is one of the most powerful platforms in the space. Fund managers read it. Investors read it.

Podcasting is easy. Writing is hard. Distilling complex ideas into a few paragraphs takes discipline. If you can write clearly, you signal that you can think clearly.

What has been the most valuable you’ve learnt from investing in both traditional and digital asset markets? How has it shaped your approach to research and decision-making?

The market doesn’t care about your position. It doesn’t care if you’re long, short, or flat. It doesn’t care about your research. It doesn’t even know who you are.

You need to believe in your ideas — but not so much that you become blind. I try to hold strong opinions, weakly held. If the market disagrees with me for too long, I’m probably wrong.

Being “too early” is often just a euphemism for being wrong. And in this space, timing is everything.

How to get in contact with Kyle?

You can find or reach out to Kyle on LinkedIn or Twitter and learn more about DeFiance Capital here.

Read the interview here

Artemis Disclaimer: The authors, affiliates, or stakeholders of Artemis may hold interests in the tokens or protocols mentioned in this content. This disclosure highlights potential conflicts of interest and is not an endorsement to buy or invest in any specific token or protocol. The content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice in any form.

Readers should approach this information cautiously and consider their unique circumstances before making investment decisions. The views and opinions expressed are subject to change without notice, and Artemis bears no liability for any loss or damage arising from the use of this information.